Europe's falling birth rates: the figures behind the headlines

The record low of 2023

According to Eurostat, the total fertility rate in the European Union fell to 1.38 live births per woman in 2023, down from 1.46 in 2022 and the lowest level on record (Eurostat, Fertility statistics). Rates ranged from 1.06 in Malta to 1.81 in Bulgaria. About 3.67 million babies were born in the EU that year, a fall of 5.4%, the largest annual drop recorded since 1961.

What the total fertility rate measures

The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman would have if she experienced, over her lifetime, the birth rates observed at each age in a given year. It is a snapshot of one year, not a count of the children women actually end up having.

This matters when people postpone births. If women have their children later than earlier generations did, the TFR falls in the years of postponement even if each woman eventually has the same number of children. Demographers therefore also look at completed fertility, the number of children women born in a given year have by the end of their reproductive lives. The two measures can tell different stories.

The level often quoted as "replacement" is about 2.1 children per woman in countries with low mortality: the rate at which a population would replace itself in the long run without migration.

France: the exception narrows

France long had the highest fertility in the EU. According to INSEE, its fertility indicator fell to 1.56 children per woman in 2025, from 1.61 in 2024, the lowest level since the end of the First World War (INSEE, Bilan démographique 2025). There were 645,000 births, 2.1% fewer than in 2024 and 24% fewer than in 2010. For the first time since the Second World War, deaths (651,000) outnumbered births.

Beyond Europe

The OECD reports that the average fertility rate across its member countries fell to 1.5 children per woman in 2022, with an estimated 0.7 in South Korea in 2023, the lowest in the world. Globally, the Global Burden of Disease study published in The Lancet in 2024 estimated that world fertility had fallen to just above replacement level by 2021 and projected a global rate of about 1.6 by 2100, with only a handful of countries above replacement by then (GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, The Lancet, 2024).

Why are birth rates falling?

There is no single cause. Research and official reports point to several factors at once:

• Later parenthood. The mean age at first birth in the EU reached 29.8 years in 2023 (see why people have children later).
• Economic uncertainty, including insecure employment for young adults.
• The cost of housing. The OECD found a clear negative association between fertility and housing costs across countries; studies within countries show that rising prices lower births among renters in particular (see housing and fertility: what the data say).
• Work and family policies, such as parental leave and access to childcare, which the OECD associates with higher fertility.
• Changing preferences, including more people choosing to have fewer or no children.

Fertility rates and infertility are different things

A falling birth rate does not mean that more people are infertile. The WHO estimates that about one adult in six experiences infertility at some point, a figure that has not changed dramatically (see how common is infertility?). Most of the decline in birth rates reflects choices and circumstances rather than biology, although postponement brings biology back in, because the chance of conceiving falls with age.

What to watch

Annual figures can move for short-term reasons, such as the pandemic, energy prices or changes in family benefits. The long-term direction is clearer: fertility below replacement in almost all of Europe for several decades, with population change increasingly driven by migration and ageing.

How countries differ

Behind the EU average lie large differences. In 2023, Bulgaria had the highest total fertility rate in the EU at 1.81 and Malta the lowest at 1.06, according to Eurostat. Countries also differ in the timing of births: the mean age at first birth ranged from 26.9 years in Bulgaria to 31.8 in Italy. Southern European countries combine some of the lowest fertility rates with some of the latest ages at first birth, a pattern researchers have linked to late departure from the parental home and difficult access to housing (see housing and fertility).

Births, deaths and population

When births fall below deaths, the natural balance of a population turns negative, and population change depends on migration. In France, 2025 was the first year since the Second World War in which deaths outnumbered births, according to INSEE, while the population still grew slightly because of migration. Several other European countries have had more deaths than births for years.

Can policy raise birth rates?

Evidence suggests that family policies can make a difference, but rarely a dramatic one. The OECD associates higher fertility with employment, parental leave and early childhood care; one-off financial incentives tend to have small or temporary effects. Because the reasons for having fewer children are varied, from later parenthood to housing and economic uncertainty, policies that address several of them at once are more likely to matter than any single measure.

A note on the data

Eurostat compiles fertility statistics from national statistical offices, and the most recent year is often revised. National institutes such as INSEE in France publish provisional figures earlier, which is why national and European figures for the same year can differ slightly.